According to a new study performed at the University of Michigan (U-M), allergy seasons are likely to last longer and grow more intense due to increasing temperatures caused by climate change.
Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Professor Allison Steiner and graduate student research assistant Yingxiao Zhang discuss their work. Image credit: Marcin Szczepanski.
By the end of this century, pollen emissions could potentially start 40 days earlier in the spring compared to what was witnessed between 1995 and 2014. Those who suffer from allergies could see that season remains an extra 19 days before high pollen counts might subside.
As a result of the increasing temperatures and increasing CO2 levels, the yearly amount of pollen liberated each year could increase up to 200%.
Pollen-induced respiratory allergies are getting worse with climate change. Our findings can be a starting point for further investigations into the consequence of climate change on pollen and corresponding health effects.
Yingxiao Zhang, Study First Author, Graduate Student and Research Assistant, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan
The study was published in the journal Nature Communications
Researchers of U-M came up with a predictive model that analyzes 15 of the most common pollen kinds and how their production will be affected by projected changes in temperatures and precipitation.
They integrated climate data along with socioeconomic scenarios, correlating their modeling with the data obtained from 1995 through 2014. Then, they utilized their model to anticipate pollen emissions for the last 20 years of the 21st century.
The symptoms of allergies run the gamut from the mildly irritating, like watery eyes, rashes or sneezing to more serious conditions, like hard breathing or anaphylaxis. As per the Asthma and Allergy Foundation of America, 40% of children and 30% of adults suffer from allergies in the United States.
The trees, weeds and grasses that produce pollen are impacted by climate change. High temperatures make them activate earlier compared to their historical norms. Also, hotter temperatures can increase the amount of pollen produced.
Allison Steiner, U-M professor of climate and space sciences and engineering, stated that the modeling developed by her team could ultimately enable allergy season predictions targeted to various geographical regions.
We’re hoping to include our pollen emissions model within a national air quality forecasting system to provide improved and climate-sensitive forecasts to the public.
Yingxiao Zhang, Study First Author, Graduate Student and Research Assistant, Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan
The study was financially supported by the National Science Foundation.
Journal Reference:
Zhang, Y & Steiner, A. L (2022) Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States. Nature Communications. doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28764-0.