A study led by Dr. Yue Qin and Dr. Tong Zhu from the College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering at Peking University marks one of the first in-depth analyses of the spatial and temporal patterns, along with the drivers, of compound low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) extremes across China. By integrating multi-model climate simulations with advanced statistical and diagnostic methodologies, this research offers key insights into this emerging issue.
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Our results suggest that under compound LSLW extremes, renewable energy generation could be significantly compromised. Even more concerning, climate change could intensify the frequency of such events, escalating threats to China’s renewable energy supply and potentially hindering progress toward carbon neutrality.
Dr. Yue Qin, Study Corresponding Author, Peking University
China's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 demands a significant shift toward reliance on solar and wind energy. Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy sources like solar and wind are inherently variable and subject to meteorological conditions, presenting challenges to the stability of electricity supplies.
While individual renewable energy sources have been extensively researched, much less attention has been given to the compounded challenges arising from simultaneous low solar and wind energy availability. Despite growing awareness of compound events, such as drought-heatwave or wind-precipitation extremes, their impact on renewable energy systems remains underexplored, especially in China, a leading global investor in solar and wind energy.
The study identifies strong topographic influences on the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average occurrence of 16.4 days annually (10th-90th percentile range: 5.3–32.6 days).
Eastern China’s renewable energy supply is particularly affected, with power output during these events dropping by approximately 80 % compared to average climate conditions. Future climate scenarios project an increase in the frequency of such events across China, with regions like the Tibetan Plateau and northwestern China experiencing the highest frequencies and significant increases.
In particular, a striking increase of compound LSLW extremes’ frequency occurs under the SSP370 scenario with aerosol emissions increase due to the assumption of a lenient air quality policy.
Licheng Wang, Study Lead Author, Peking University
Wang said, “It is noteworthy that the distinct increase in aerosol loading under SSP370 scenario, likely plays an important role in driving the most striking increases in compound LSLW extremes’ frequency observed nationwide. The high aerosol loading weakens wind speed by inducing a more stable boundary layer and attenuates radiation by absorbing and scattering incoming solar radiation.”
The research also examines inter-grid electricity transmission as a potential adaptation strategy, finding that it could mitigate the frequency and intensity of compound LSLW extremes by over 91 % and reduce power output failures by 59 %-85 %.
The Tibetan region, or Xizang, shows the greatest potential to alleviate LSLW-induced renewable power shortages for other areas through grid interconnections. However, the current interregional electricity transmission infrastructure in Xizang is limited due to geographic and economic constraints. Enhancing renewable energy infrastructure in Xizang could play a pivotal role in supporting China’s carbon neutrality goals.
A comprehensive understanding of China’s compound LSLW extremes is essential for informed renewable energy investment and power sector planning. Without it, China’s pursuit of carbon neutrality—an integral part of global carbon mitigation efforts—could face significant setbacks.
By revealing the geospatial and temporal evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying physical mechanisms under climate change, our study emphasizes that these events are not random but predictable. This underscores the importance of proactive preparation and mitigation to address this pressing challenge.
Dr. Yue Qin, Study Corresponding Author, Peking University
Journal Reference:
Wang, L., et al. (2024) Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China. National Science Review. doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwae424.