Reviewed by Lexie CornerJan 13 2025
An international research team led by Dr. Wenxia Zhang from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, published a study in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences summarizing the characteristics and impacts of notable extreme weather events of the year, including droughts, tropical cyclones, rainfall, and flooding.
Extreme climate and weather events in 2024. Image Credit: Wenxia Zhang
From the prolonged droughts in southern Africa and Central America earlier in the year to the recent intense rainfall in Spain and the destructive Hurricane Helene along the U.S. east coast, 2024 has seen significant climatic events that have affected billions of people.
The study also examines the underlying causes of these events, the influence of global warming, and the challenges humanity faces in building climate resilience. Dr. Zhang and her team have conducted annual assessments of global climate extremes since 2022, noting that 2024 has been characterized by particularly heavy rainfall and widespread flooding.
Most extreme events have a large random element in that they are subject to fluctuations in the weather, and occur when weather patterns set up in just the 'right' way. Some extremes are more likely when larger-scale drivers such as ENSO influence the weather patterns in a region.
Dr. James Risbey, Study Co-Author and Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO
The atmospheric patterns associated with the El Niño event of winter 2023–2024 were major contributors to several extreme rainfall and drought events in 2024. However, specific occurrences cannot be fully attributed to ENSO alone.
Human-induced climate change since the pre-industrial era has often exacerbated extreme rainfall, tropical cyclones, and droughts, along with their associated socioeconomic impacts. This is supported by findings from extreme event attribution studies, also known as "attribution science."
Dr. Risbey added, “The climate change influence can be direct through physical processes causing the extreme, or indirect in influencing the weather, large scale drivers, and key baselines.”
“This is consistent with basic physical understanding that anthropogenic warming leads to increases in atmospheric moisture and evaporative demand, and hence, potentially enhances extreme rainfall and droughts, respectively,” explained Dr. Wenxia Zhang.
The research team emphasizes that significant challenges remain in understanding and attributing these phenomena. A key issue is the observed discrepancies between modeled and actual extremes, particularly for extreme rainfall, which can undermine confidence in attribution results.
Improved extreme event attribution requires better understanding of climate change. More accurate attribution of extreme events is expected to inform decision-making, ranging from post-disaster recovery to future preparedness.
Dr. Micheal Brody, Study Author, George Mason University
Another critical aspect is the ability to accurately forecast and communicate the onset of extreme events, enabling timely action. Improved prediction and preparedness could significantly reduce casualties in disasters such as the floods and hurricanes experienced in 2024.
Some of the extreme events witnessed in 2024, such as Hurricane Helene, were well forecasted. The destructive impacts were partly due to the vulnerability of the underprepared community to a changing climate.
Dr. Zhuo Wang, Study Team Member and Professor, University of Illinois
Dr. Piotr Wolski, University of Cape Town, added, “Increasing the quality of forecasts is important, but to reduce the impacts of extreme events, it is more important to achieve proper dissemination of warnings and to act upon them to lessen existing vulnerabilities.”
Dr. Wolski highlights the concept of "climate resilience," an increasingly critical component of strategies to address climate change and its societal impacts. There is a growing recognition not only of measures to protect against climate impacts but also of actions needed to mitigate the root causes of the issue. This shift reflects the realization that such challenges are becoming a defining feature of the present and future.
The impacts of catastrophic climate events can quickly manifest in frustration and anger among affected populations, as seen in Valencia, Spain, following the severe floods and mudslides in October.
This underscores the pressing need to deepen our understanding of the factors driving extreme weather and climate events, improve forecasting capabilities, and develop systems that can respond effectively and promptly to available information.
Enhancing these capacities is essential to better prepare humanity for the challenges ahead.
Journal Reference:
Zhang, W., et al. (2024) A Year Marked by Extreme Precipitation and Floods: Weather and Climate Extremes in 2024. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.doi.org/10.1007/s00376-025-4540-4