Mission Possible Partnership (MPP) launches its Global Project Tracker today, shedding new light on the state of transition in seven heavy industry and transport sectors, which account for 30% of global carbon emissions. It reveals a growing pipeline of net-zero-aligned projects across the ‘harder-to-abate' sectors. However, it warns that rapid acceleration is needed to bring almost 600 decarbonised plants under construction in the coming years to meet deployment goals for a 1.5 oC aligned trajectory.
The Tracker shows that 68 commercial-scale net-zero-aligned plants are currently operational, and 42 are at Final Investment Decision (FID). More than 700 must be up and running by 2030, according to MPP’s industry-backed milestones for decarbonising key sectors in line with the Paris-aligned ambition. To meet these deadlines, FID must be reached within three years to enable construction this decade. Bridging the current gap and scaling near-zero solutions adequately requires an almost seven-fold increase in the number of plants that have achieved FID to date.
The encouraging news is that companies have issued a wave of project announcements in the past 12 months, indicating growing industry ambition and a shift towards more favourable conditions emerging in some locations. Plans to build 473 commercial-scale decarbonisation plants are identified on the Tracker, which, if brought to FID, would reduce the gap by 80%.
However, analysis by MPP indicates that many projects struggle to get from announcement to FID, which means that the current pace of progress is too slow. Various economic and policy barriers can be identified that stall projects. 595 plants must now be brought to FID across aluminium, cement, chemicals, steel, aviation, and shipping – within three years to meet 2030 deployment goals. The trucking target measures zero-emission trucks on the road, and millions more need to be operational this decade.
No sector is currently on target, and time is running out to get on course. Most progress is seen in aviation, with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blending mandates and subsidy schemes driving projects to operation in Europe and the US. 15% of the target has passed FID.
There has been a marked increase in the green ammonia pipeline, with announcements now exceeding the 2030 target, supported by demand signals from the shipping and fertiliser sectors. The question is how quickly these plans can reach commercial scale.
MPP’s Tracker uses aggregated data to chart investment progress into net-zero-aligned projects, with updates every three months to reflect changes during this critical period. It is the first publicly available tool to combine all seven sectors and visually depicts a progress pipeline indicating a project’s status ranging from announced to FID and operational.
Today’s flagship projects prove that technologies are maturing, and announced projects show the opportunity to create critical mass and realise new markets for clean industrial products. However, the economic and policy barriers must rapidly be tackled to create widespread bankability for announced projects whilst encouraging the development of many more.
Evidence is emerging on the interventions that can be taken to accelerate the pipeline. Tracker analysis shows key levers of progress across sectors and regions, which can inspire further action:
- Government policies can create demand and bridge the green premium: Regions that have introduced robust sectoral targets and policies have seen a surge in pipeline activity.
- E.g., SAF blending mandates in the EU and IRA subsidies and DoE grants in the US are increasing industry confidence and reducing the green premium.
- Support for clean technology deployment can de-risk investment: Nascent technologies with higher green premiums must be supported at the early demonstration stage, and upscaling provided at the industry and government level.
- E.g., Canadian public-private partnership to develop new inert anode technology for aluminium has led to regional announcements.
- Co-location of projects and enabling infrastructure brings synergies: Conjoined vision and a systems approach across green industrial hubs can unlock shared benefits with midstream infrastructure and community-based organisations.
- E.g., The Transatlantic Clean Hydrogen Trade Coalition shipping route from Houston to Rotterdam is being established to enable green import and export infrastructure. Green hydrogen hubs are emerging globally, such as one at the Port of Pecém in Ceará, Brazil.
Dick Benschop, Interim Chief Executive Officer of the Mission Possible Partnership, said: “We have a new level of insight into the decarbonisation trajectory for heavy industry and transport – and the rising ambition of industry is clear. But with the planet's future hanging in the balance, there is no hiding from the challenges ahead. We need to rapidly unlock the barriers that can transform plans into plants. MPP is committed to addressing the collective action needed, and we urge all stakeholders to contribute.”
Christiana Figueres, Co-Founder of Global Optimism, said: “Realising the Paris Agreement means the so-called ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors ‘have-to-abate’. MPP’s Global Project Tracker demonstrates that they already can and - in many cases - ‘want-to-abate’. Exponential transformation is now within reach across heavy industry, shipping, aviation and trucking. But, while the MPP project pipeline provides a clear pathway for progress, success is not inevitable. Policymakers and investors must show courageous leadership at this crucial crossroads and make decisions that enable the have-to-abate sectors to move at the pace and scale required.”
Rob van Riet, Interim Head of the First Movers Coalition, World Economic Forum, said: “Gaining increasingly granular insights into where net-zero aligned projects are globally emerging is critical to accelerating and scaling collaborative action between offtakers, suppliers, financiers and policymakers towards industry decarbonization. That’s certainly true for the almost 100 companies that have signed onto the First Movers Coalition, thereby committing to purchase near-zero emission products in heavy emitting sectors. The tracker thus serves a key role in informing committed companies on where they may find the supply and partners needed to implement their commitments. FMC is looking forward to continued and deepened collaboration with MPP, including through leveraging the synergies between MPP’s Global Project Tracker and FMC’s First Suppliers Hub.”
Rachel Jetel, Co-Director, Systems Change Lab, World Resources Institute, said: “The MPP Global Project Tracker offers a real-time dashboard of progress against a clear roadmap that the industry sector can follow to tackle the climate crisis. Systems Change Lab finds that current efforts to decarbonize the industry sector are well off track -- and in some cases heading in the wrong direction. This tracker helps identify where the bright spots are and where action is needed most to share learnings for how to accelerate climate action.”
Jacob Susman, Chief Executive Officer of Ambient Fuels, said: “There is so much work to do to decarbonize heavy industry, and it’s encouraging to see the numerous project announcements in the marketplace designed to support that goal. However, it’s very difficult for market participants to gauge how likely these announcements are to progress into real projects reaching a final investment decision and moving into construction to create real decarbonization. MPP’s independent, data-driven approach to this can provide valuable insights to the market and policymakers so we can better measure how we as an industry are meeting climate goals, and where more work is needed to increase deployment. We commend this work and look forward to supporting MPP in this endeavour.”
The Global Project Tracker is now live at tracker.missionpossiblepartnership.org and maps the location and status globally of net-zero-aligned assets across seven sectors. It enables industry groups to identify potential partners or green hubs, financial institutions to see potential investment options, and policymakers to track progress in their regions and inform decision-making. With quarterly updates, MPP will continue to chart the levers that can unlock progress in bringing a critical mass of projects to realisation this decade.