Researchers at Ritsumeikan University have conducted a detailed study to project the future resource requirements for electric vehicle (EV) batteries by 2050, including considerations for replacements and expanded capacity. Published in the journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling, the study emphasizes the materials demands of lithium-ion batteries and recommends the adoption of circular economy strategies to meet these needs sustainably.
Image Credit: Ritsumeikan University
To limit CO2 emissions, many countries are setting ambitious targets to transition from internal combustion vehicles to EVs. Japan aims for 20-30 % of all car sales to be battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and for 30-40 % of sales to be hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) by 2030.
The US plans for 50 % of new vehicle sales to be zero-emission by 2030, while Germany aims to have 15 million EVs on the road by the same year. These goals raise concerns about the demand for raw materials needed for EV production.
Batteries, which make up 50 % of the resources consumed in BEV manufacturing, require various minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite. Current resource demand estimates are likely misjudged as they do not account for the need for battery replacements during a vehicle's lifetime or the trend toward increasing battery capacities.
Researchers under the direction of Associate Professor Shoki Kosai of Ritsumeikan University in Japan have attempted to provide a more accurate assessment of the resource requirements for electric vehicles by 2050.
Their research addresses the current underestimations by accounting for the raw material demand required to produce, operate, and maintain EVs. Additionally, they introduce several strategies to mitigate resource consumption. The study was co-authored by Mr. Hibiki Takimoto from Ritsumeikan University, Dr. Takuma Watari from the National Institute for Environmental Studies, and Professor Eiji Yamasue from Ritsumeikan University.
In our study, we seek to address critical questions such as 'To what extent will vehicle electrification contribute to an escalation in resource use?', 'What are the underlying factors driving this change?', and 'To what extent can the increase in resource use be effectively managed and mitigated?'.
Shoki Kosai, Associate Professor, Ritsumeikan University
The study assessed the total material requirement (TMR) for EV batteries under three scenarios: the Reference Technology Scenario (RTS), which maintains current energy and technological trends; the 2-Degree Scenario (2DS), which requires significant climate change mitigation to limit temperature rise to 2°C; and the Beyond 2-Degree Scenario (B2DS), which targets zero emissions by 2060 and limits temperature rise to 1.75 °C by 2100.
TMR serves as the benchmark for assessing resource use, encompassing both materials directly used in battery manufacturing and those extracted but not utilized. The study assumes vehicles have a lifespan of 15 years or 100,000 km, using lithium-ion batteries with nickel, cobalt, and manganese, which are replaced every seven years.
The findings reveal that TMR for EVs increases in all three scenarios. Under the RTS scenario, which assumes most vehicles remain internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the demand for raw materials nearly doubles from 2015 levels. In the B2DS scenario, where BEVs dominate, the demand is 22.7 % higher. Lithium-ion batteries are projected to account for 55 % of the total resource use in the automotive industry under this scenario, driven by the production and maintenance of BEVs.
The researchers discovered that implementing specific circular economy strategies could halve resource demand or maintain it at 2015 levels. These strategies include extending vehicle lifetimes, promoting car and ride-sharing services, enhancing material recovery and recycling in new vehicles, improving fuel efficiency, and adopting longer-lasting solid-state batteries.
Among these strategies, ride-sharing and recycling had the greatest impact, reducing resource demand by 37.0–43.0 % and 33.0–39.6 %, respectively. Improvements in fuel economy were also significant, especially for ICEVs, contributing to a reduction in resource demand by 10.2–21.8 %.
Switching to solid-state batteries was another important contributor to reducing resource demand. Solid-state batteries require fewer materials than traditional lithium-ion batteries and do not need to be replaced as often. They reduced the need for additional resources by 30.6% for increasing battery capacity and 29.1% for battery replacement.
With EV demand expected to grow from less than 45 million in 2023 to 250 million in 2030 and reach 525 million in 2035, the implementation of circular economy strategies will be crucial to meeting resource demands for future electrification goals.
Overall, the findings of this study were clear. In the automotive sector, electrification contributes to an increase in resource use by approximately more than twice. Vehicle electrification can be achieved without increasing resource use if a set of circular economy strategies is concurrently and ambitiously implemented.
Shoki Kosai, Associate Professor, Ritsumeikan University
Journal Reference:
Takimoto, H., et al. (2024) Circular economy can mitigate rising mining demand from global vehicle electrification. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2024.107748.