Dataset Reveals China's Energy Consumption Patterns and Growth Potential

By Muhammad OsamaReviewed by Laura ThomsonJul 22 2024

In a recent article published in the journal Scientific Data, researchers introduced a comprehensive dataset of city-level final energy consumption in China. They aimed to provide valuable insights for energy transition, climate change mitigation, and policy formulation.

Background

China, the world's largest energy consumer and greenhouse gas emitter, plays a key role in climate change mitigation. National energy and environmental policies rely heavily on local governments, especially at the city level. As centers of economic activity and energy demand, cities face various challenges and opportunities in energy transition and emission reduction. Therefore, accurate and comprehensive data on city-level energy consumption is essential for understanding Chinese cities' energy characteristics and dynamics.

However, there is a lack of data on city-level energy consumption in China, especially for renewable energy sources like hydropower, wind, solar, and nuclear power. Existing studies do not provide detailed information on cities' energy structures and renewable energy consumption. No dataset covers all prefecture-level towns and municipalities in China.

About the Research

In this paper, the authors developed a novel dataset of city-level energy consumption in China using computational modeling and downscaling methods. The dataset covers 331 cities, including 327 prefecture-level cities and four municipalities, accounting for over 98% of the national population, GDP, and land area in 2021. It includes 34 energy resources, such as raw coal, crude oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat, as well as hydropower, wind power, solar power, and nuclear power. The dataset also covers seven economic sectors, including agriculture, industry, construction, transport, services, and residential consumption from 2005 to 2021.

The researchers obtained provincial-level data on energy consumption, renewable energy generation, power transmission, and socio-economic indicators from various official sources. They estimated provincial-level renewable energy consumption by considering power transfer within and between regional power grids. They then downscaled this data to the city level using GDP and resident population as socio-economic indicators. Discrepancies between provincial and city-level data were addressed by considering administrative differences and incomplete socio-economic data in some regions.

Research Findings

The dataset revealed the spatio-temporal patterns and characteristics of city-level energy consumption in China. Total energy consumption in Chinese cities increased from 13.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2005 to 24.6 billion tons in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 4.3%. The growth rate slowed after 2013, indicating a gradual decoupling of energy consumption and economic growth. In 2021, fossil fuels, especially coal and oil, dominated energy consumption, accounting for 66.7% and 23.2% of the total, respectively. The share of natural gas increased from 2.4% in 2005 to 5.9% in 2021, while the share of thermal power decreased from 6.1% to 3.5%. Renewable energy, including hydropower, wind, solar, and nuclear power, increased from 1.7% in 2005 to 5.8% in 2021.

Energy consumption varied significantly across regions, sectors, and energy types. The eastern region showed the highest consumption, followed by the central, western, and northeastern areas. The industrial sector was the largest energy consumer, followed by the residential, transport, and service sectors.

Coal was the main energy source in the northern and western regions, while oil was the main energy source in the eastern and southern regions. Natural gas was mainly consumed in the eastern and central areas, while renewable energy was consumed in the western and northeastern regions.

Patterns of energy consumption changed over time across cities. Cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen reached their peak energy consumption, while others like Chongqing, Chengdu, and Xi’an still showed significant growth potential. Cities such as Tianjin, Ordos, and Yulin experienced a decline in consumption due to industrial adjustments and reduced coal usage. Cities like Lanzhou, Urumqi, and Hohhot significantly increased their renewable energy consumption due to the development of wind and solar power.

Applications

The dataset can be used for various applications in energy economics, transition risk management, and policy formulation. It can help analyze the factors driving city-level energy consumption and associated emissions, the risks and opportunities of energy transition for different cities and sectors, and the effectiveness of energy and environmental policies at the city level.

The dataset can also facilitate cross-city and cross-country comparisons, benchmarking, scenario analysis, and forecasting. It can also be integrated with other social and environmental data and applied to different statistical and econometric models.

Conclusion

The researchers summarized that their novel dataset was the first to include data on renewable energy consumption at the city level in China. It provided valuable information and insights for understanding Chinese cities' energy characteristics and dynamics, supporting energy transition, climate change mitigation, and policy formulation in China.

Moving forward, the dataset could be updated annually and improved by expanding the scope of energy resources, sectors, and indicators, as well as by incorporating city-level heterogeneity and uncertainty.

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