A recent research paper in Nature Communications comprehensively explored the feasibility of scaling up carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage technologies to address global warming. The researchers assessed the challenges and potential of storing gigatons of CO₂ underground by 2050, emphasizing the need for realistic projections and substantial investment. The goal was to evaluate large-scale CO₂ storage by considering geological, geographical, and economic factors and to provide a benchmark for future developments.
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Background
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change. It involves capturing CO₂ emissions and storing them underground to prevent atmospheric release. Meeting international climate goals, such as limiting global warming to below 1.5°C, depends on the rapid deployment of CCS. However, the speed at which CCS can be scaled up has been a subject of debate and speculation due to concerns about storage capacity, injectivity, and leakage.
About the Research
In this paper, researchers from Imperial College London assessed the potential for scaling up CO₂ storage. They developed growth models using a logistic curve to estimate the expansion rate of CO₂ storage capacity, considering geological suitability, technical and economic constraints, and available resources. Their model used data from current and planned CCS projects and growth rates.
The authors compared existing projections, particularly those from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), with real-world data from similar industries like mining and renewable energy. By analyzing growth patterns in these sectors, they aimed to create a more accurate framework for predicting CO₂ storage development.
The study focused on 10 countries and regions, including the United States, China, Europe, and Australia, crucial for global CO₂ storage efforts. Data from the 2022 Global Status Report by the Global CCS Institute, detailing existing and planned CCS projects, was used for this analysis.
The research also considered projected CO₂ storage rates from the AR6 Scenario Explorer, an online platform by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). Various scenarios, reference, minimum, growth 10%, and maximum, were analyzed to explore how changes in growth rate and storage resource estimates affect modeled storage rates.
Research Findings
The outcomes showed that storing 6 to 16 gigatons of CO₂ annually by 2050 is technically possible but would require significant increases in storage capacity and scaling efforts beyond current investment levels. However, higher CO₂ storage targets are uncertain due to insufficient concrete plans and international agreements. The authors noted that integrated assessment models (IAMs) used by the IPCC often overestimate storage potential, particularly in China, Indonesia, and South Korea.
A key finding was the gap between CO₂ storage rates projected by the AR6 Scenario Explorer and those considered feasible by the growth modeling framework. Storage rates are constrained by growth rates and resource availability, with maximum annual growth rates being critical. The researchers also highlighted that actual storage capacity might be lower due to uncertainties in resource availability.
The research highlighted regional differences, such as China's higher CO₂ storage growth rate due to rapid infrastructure development, while the US and Europe experience slower growth because of regulatory and public challenges. These variations show that regional contexts play a significant role in determining CO₂ storage potential and growth rates.
The study proposed a more realistic global benchmark for CO₂ storage of around 5-6 gigatons per year by 2050, rather than the more optimistic figures often cited. For example, the United States would need to contribute around 1 gigaton per year to meet this target. Achieving the upper limit of 16 gigatons annually would require the U.S. to account for about 60% of the total, underscoring significant regional disparities.
Applications
This research has important implications for climate policy and planning. Offering a more realistic assessment of CO₂ storage potential can help policymakers set achievable targets and develop strategies aligned with the actual pace of technological development. Furthermore, developed models can be used to update existing projections and create more reliable scenarios for CO₂ storage, helping formulate effective climate policies.
Conclusion
The study emphasized aligning climate targets with realistic CO₂ storage goals. Storing large amounts of CO₂ underground is technically feasible but requires significant investment and development. The authors revealed that feasible storage rates were lower than those projected by integrated assessment models.
Growth rates varied by region, underscoring the importance of considering resource availability and regional constraints. Overall, this research provided a practical framework for predicting CO₂ storage growth and assisted policymakers in setting achievable targets and developing effective climate strategies.
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Source:
Zhang, Y., Jackson, C. & Krevor, S. The feasibility of reaching gigatonne scale CO2 storage by mid-century. Nat Commun 15, 6913 (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-51226-8, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-51226-8