Reviewed by Lexie CornerSep 26 2024
Researchers from the Chalmers University of Technology and the University of Bergen in Norway recently published a study in Nature Climate Change showing that significant technological progress is needed to meet the 2 °C goal. They also suggest that, even with major efforts, achieving the 1.5 °C target is unlikely.
3D illustration of CCS at Sleipner, where gas is extracted, and carbon dioxide has been stored below the North Sea outside the coast of Norway since 1996. Image Credit: Equinor.
To meet the Paris Climate Agreement goals, a rapid expansion of carbon capture and storage (CCS) is needed. However, despite significant efforts, CCS may not scale fast enough to achieve the 1.5 °C target. CCS technologies, such as direct air capture and storage (DACCS) and bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), produce negative emissions by capturing and storing CO2 underground. These technologies are essential for achieving net-zero emissions, but they are currently underutilized.
CCS is an important technology for achieving negative emissions and also essential for reducing carbon emissions from some of the most carbon-intensive industries. Yet our results show that major efforts are needed to bridge the gap between the demonstration projects in place today and the massive deployment we need to mitigate climate change.
Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor, Chalmers University of Technology
A recent study titled "Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets" analyzed the past and present growth of CCS to predict its future potential in meeting the Paris Climate Agreement goals. The study estimates that up to 600 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 could be sequestered with CCS throughout the twenty-first century.
Our analysis shows that we are unlikely to capture and store more than 600 Gt over the 21st century. This contrasts with many climate mitigation pathways from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which, in some cases, require upwards of 1000 Gt of CO2 captured and stored by the end of the century.
Tsimafei Kazlou, Study First Author and PhD Candidate, University of Bergen
“While this looks at the overall amount, it is also important to understand when the technology can start operating at a large scale because the later we start using CCS the lower the chances are of keeping temperature rise at 1.5 °C or 2 °C. This is why most of our research focused on how fast CCS can expand,” added Kazlou
Decrease in CCS Failure Rate Required
The study highlights the need to scale up CCS projects and reduce failure rates to ensure the technology gains momentum this decade. Current initiatives like the EU Net-Zero Industry Act and the US Inflation Reduction Act are driving CCS development. If all current plans are implemented, CCS capacity could increase eightfold by 2030.
“Even though there are ambitious plans for CCS, there are big doubts about whether these are feasible. About 15 years ago, during another wave of interest in CCS, planned projects failed at a rate of almost 90 %. If historic failure rates continue, capacity in 2030 will be at most twice what it is today, which would be insufficient for climate targets,” further added Kazlou.
A Promising Technology with Barriers to Overcome
CCS, like many technologies, follows a nonlinear development path. Even if it gains momentum by 2030, significant challenges remain. To meet the 2 °C goal, CCS would need to expand as rapidly as wind power did in the early 2000s over the next decade, and then match the peak growth of nuclear energy in the 1970s and 1980s starting in the 2040s.
“The good news is that if CCS can grow as fast as other low-carbon technologies have, the 2 °C target would be within reach (on tiptoes). The bad news, is 1.5 °C would likely still be out of reach,” stated Jessica Jewell.
The study underscores the need for strong policy support for CCS and the swift adoption of other decarbonization technologies to achieve climate goals.
Rapid deployment of CCS needs strong support schemes to make CCS projects financially viable. At the same time, our results show that since we can only count on CCS to deliver 600 Gt of CO2 captured and stored over the 21st century, other low-carbon technologies like solar and wind power need to expand even faster.
Aleh Cherp, Professor, Central European University
Journal Reference:
Kazlou, T., et al. (2024) Feasible deployment of carbon capture and storage and the requirements of climate targets. Nature Climate Change. doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02104-0.