Reviewed by Lexie CornerNov 15 2024
A recent machine learning study by Samuel Pottinger and colleagues predicts that, without intervention, global plastic waste could double by 2050. However, simulations from the study suggest that a combination of policy interventions could reduce plastic waste by over 90 % and cut emissions related to plastics by one-third. The study was published in Science.
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With UN treaty negotiations underway, these findings offer a framework for addressing the plastic crisis. The continued increase in plastic production over the years has led to growing plastic waste and inadequate environmental management.
As plastic degrades, it breaks down into micro- and nano-plastics, harming ecosystems worldwide, from the Arctic to deep ocean habitats. It also poses health risks, including higher cancer rates, cardiovascular problems, and reproductive issues. Additionally, the plastic lifecycle contributes to climate change through emissions from oil and gas extraction, production, and waste processing.
Environmental justice concerns are growing due to the disproportionate impact of plastic waste on the Global South and the frequent siting of plastic facilities in marginalized communities. In response, global efforts to address these issues culminated in a 2022 UN resolution calling for a legally binding treaty to reduce plastic pollution.
To support these efforts, Samuel Pottinger and colleagues developed a machine learning model to predict trends in global plastic production, trade, and waste management through 2050. They also simulated the effects of eight potential policy interventions aimed at reducing waste and emissions.
Pottinger et al. predict that, without intervention, annual mismanaged plastic waste will nearly double by 2050, reaching 121 million metric tons, while greenhouse gas emissions from the global plastic system are expected to increase by 37 %. However, their simulations suggest that a combination of policy measures—such as production caps, recycling mandates, packaging taxes, and infrastructure investments—could reduce mismanaged plastic waste by up to 91 % and cut emissions from plastics by about one-third by 2050.
Pottinger et al. said: “Collectively, these observations provide timely insight into how to maximize the impact of the UN plastic pollution treaty both as it is being drafted and over the longer time horizon of its implementation. It is clear from these results that, with sufficient political will, there is enough technical potential to dramatically reduce mismanaged plastic waste and meaningfully address some of the more insidious associated issues.”
Journal Reference:
Pottinger, A. S., et al. (2024) Pathways to reduce global plastic waste mismanagement and greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Science. doi.org/10.1126/science.adr3837.