In an article recently published in the journal Nature Energy, researchers explored the potential of demand-side strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions rapidly and significantly in the buildings and transport sectors by 2050. They highlighted the importance of integrating various mitigation measures to develop effective pathways toward climate goals, particularly under the Paris Agreement.
Significance of Demand-Side Mitigation Technologies
Demand-side mitigation involves reducing energy consumption and emissions through changes in consumer behavior, technology adoption, and lifestyle adjustments. Key technologies include energy-efficient appliances, smart home systems, the electrification of heating and transport, and biofuels and electrofuels. These solutions lower overall energy demand, reduce emissions and improve the flexibility of energy supply systems.
In 2019, buildings and transport accounted for approximately 29% of global final energy consumption, contributing 19% and 7% of direct energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that demand-side measures could reduce emissions from buildings and land transport by 66% and 67% by 2050, highlighting the importance of detailed analyses of specific interventions.
Exploring Different Demand Side Technologies
In this paper, the authors utilized integrated assessment models (IAMs), including:
- A comprehensive framework for energy and emissions (COFFEE)
- An integrated model to assess the global environment-regional (IMACLIM-R)
- An Integrated model to assess the global environment (IMAGE)
- A model for energy supply strategy alternatives and their general environmental impact-buildings (MESSAGEix-Buildings)
- A prospective model for energy technologies and human activities (PROMETHEUS)
- A regional model of investments and development (REMIND)
- A world-induced technical change hybrid model (WITCH) to assess the effectiveness of different demand-side strategies.
They evaluated emissions reduction potential through four key strategies: activity-focused measures, technology-optimization, electrification initiatives, and a combined approach integrating all strategies.
Scenario modeling was applied to estimate the impact of these strategies under existing policies and more ambitious climate goals. Policymakers and experts contributed to ensuring the scenarios were credible and policy-relevant. Activity-focused measures aimed to redesign service-provisioning systems to lower energy use, while technology-optimizing strategies improved efficiency in existing technologies. Electrification strategies promoted a shift to electric systems and alternative fuels such as biofuels and electrofuels.
The methodology included a literature review to identify key demand-side measures and their expected effects on energy use and emissions. The study modeled different socio-economic pathways, including a middle-of-the-road scenario (SSP2) and a stringent climate scenario aligned with limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. The researchers employed a multi-model approach to capture uncertainties and variations in model dynamics, offering a robust framework for evaluating the interactions between different mitigation strategies.
Key Insights: Impact of Using Different Strategies
The outcomes demonstrated that demand-side strategies could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By 2050, direct carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions could decrease by 63% in buildings (ranging from 51% to 85%) and 70% in transport (ranging from 37% to 91%) compared to 2015 levels. Among all the strategies, electrification was the most effective, reducing 45% to 77% in buildings and 22% to 86% in transport. Technology-optimizing strategies contributed reductions of 11% to 33% in buildings and 2% to 67% in transport, while activity-focused measures showed variability, with reductions of 6% to 23% in buildings and 17% to 28% in transport.
The integrated approach, referred to as the "ALL" scenario, delivered greater emissions reductions than any single strategy alone. This method lowered emissions and reduced pressure on the supply system, demonstrating its importance for meeting climate targets. However, some interactions reduced effectiveness, such as improved insulation having limited benefits when paired with inefficient heating systems.
Practical Applications of Demand-Side Strategies
This research has significant implications for policymakers and energy sector stakeholders. Highlighting the potential of demand-side solutions provides a framework for policies that promote energy efficiency, electrification, and behavioral change. Policymakers can design comprehensive energy transition strategies by combining technological advancements with sustainable consumer practices. These include incentives for energy-efficient appliances, subsidies for electric vehicles, and support for community-based renewable energy. Flexible tariffs can also help optimize energy use. Investments in active transportation infrastructure can further contribute to emissions reduction.
Conclusion and Future Directions
By combining demand-side strategies, the authors indicated that substantial emissions reductions in the buildings and transport sectors are possible by 2050. However, the success of these strategies relies heavily on the collaborative efforts of policymakers, industry stakeholders, and consumers.
Integrating demand-side solutions into broader climate strategies will be essential as climate challenges intensify. Future work should refine IAMs to better capture demand-side dynamics and explore the socio-economic factors influencing consumer behavior. Understanding these interactions can help develop more effective policies that cut emissions, support sustainable development, and improve overall well-being.
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Source:
van Heerden, R., Edelenbosch, O.Y., Daioglou, V. et al. Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050. Nat Energy (2025). DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-025-01703-1